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2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win at the Academy Awards?

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Indiewire

Indiewire

2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win at the Academy Awards?

Marcus Jones

Tue, February 18, 2026 at 2:30 p.m. PST·2 min read

ConsiderThis

ConsiderThis

Editor’s note: Throughout the Oscar season, IndieWire will update this page with in-depth Oscar predictions from Awards Editor Marcus Jones and Crafts & Animation Editor Bill Desowitz. A link to each category will lead to lists of the ever-changing contenders, plus reporting on what films have captivated voters, rules changes made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, interviews with potential nominees, and much more.

The State of the Race

The 97th annual Academy Awards are fast approaching, meaning it is already time to try and determine what film can fill the shoes of last year’s Best Picture winner and box office phenomenon “Oppenheimer.”

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Looking back at 2024, the year in film was initially characterized by an unpredictable box office turnout that has seen films meant to be massive blockbusters come and go. Festivals like Sundance and Cannes definitely gave the film community some hope, with titles like “A Real Pain,” “Anora,” and “The Substance” pleasing crowds and collecting awards.

Sequels like “Dune: Part Two” and “Inside Out 2” were able to build upon the success of their Oscar-winning predecessors, giving hope to similar ambitious Best Picture bids like “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “Gladiator II,” that never came to pass, with “Wicked” being the film to end the year on a high note.

Though there were arthouse successes like Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” and Alex Garland’s “Civil War” scattered throughout the year, the fall brought in the lion’s share of auteur-driven Oscar contenders like “Conclave,” Edward Berger’s first project after the success of Best International Feature Film winner “All Quiet on the Western Front,” a papal election thriller, and “Nickel Boys,” the long-awaited scripted debut from Academy Award-nominated filmmaker RaMell Ross, an adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel.

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Ultimately, 2024 did become a year where quite a few films that were nominated were not even on voters’ radars until late in year, especially with how it was hard to keep up with what continued shooting through the SAG and WGA strikes (with waivers, of course,) and what films have found distribution in time to receive Oscar campaigns. Examples include “A Complete Unknown,” “The Brutalist,” and “I’m Still Here.”

To keep up with all of that and more, follow along on IndieWire as the 2026 Oscars draw closer. We will share up-to-date insights on the films, filmmakers, and stars expected to be in the running to win the most prestigious award in American film.

The 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. See the individual prediction pages listed below, which will be refreshed throughout the race, and follow IndieWire on X, Instagram, and Facebook for all the latest Oscars news.

2026 Academy Awards Predictions

Best Picture Best Director Best Actor Best Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Original Screenplay Best Adapted Screenplay Best Animated Feature Best Production Design Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Original Score Best Original Song Best Documentary Feature Best International Feature Best Animated Short Best Documentary Short Best Live-Action Short

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